Surplus Lines Reporting

Surplus lines premium across the fifteen stamping-office states has grown from $26.5B in 2016 to $90.3B in 2025 — 3.4× in 9 years. But the market is past the steepest part of its cycle: growth peaked at 24% in 2022, the height of the hard market. Growth has now decelerated for three straight years (15%, then 12%, then 11%). The first half of 2026 confirms the turn: premium across the fifteen states grew just 3% over H1 2025 — the slowest first half in the record kept here.

The hard market is cooling, not collapsing. National growth ran 15% in 2023, 12% in 2024 and 11% in 2025 — still healthy, but each year slower. Then H1 2026 premium came in at $47.6B, only 3% ahead of H1 2025 (which had grown 17%). Rate alone is no longer carrying the market; submission flow and new E&S classes have to.

California, Texas, Florida write 64% of all stamping-office premium ($57.6B of $90.3B in 2025). Where those three go, the national number goes — which is why what happens in these three states matters more than anything happening in the other twelve. And within the three, California is now doing the pulling: it added $3.35B of new premium in 2025 (up 18%, to $22.1B), the largest dollar gain of any state, while Florida — which grew at 18% a year over the past five years — rose just 2% in 2025 — and its H1 2026 premium is running 6% below a year earlier. Property-driven Florida is where the softening shows first.

Parts of the middle market are out-compounding the big three. Over the past five years, Arizona (21%/yr), Oregon (20%/yr), Nevada (19%/yr) have each grown faster than California, Texas or Florida. Together these faster-growing states write $9.3B — small individually, but they are where 2025 growth was broadest.