Surplus Lines numbers are in for July

August 17, 2026 · July 2026 Big 4 Update --- Every state's surplus lines numbers are a function of what kind of business it writes. Florida moves with property rates. Texas moves with its liability growth engine on top of a property base. California moves with the admitted market's ongoing migration into E&S. And New York moves with the large, complex liability placements that define its book. When we're able to combine the data all in one place like we have here, the outcomes of the macro on the individual states becomes quite unsurprising. Through July, we've had $41B in surplus lines premium across California, Texas, Florida, and New York. The market is growing in aggregate, but the growth is uneven, and slowing. --- California: $13.5B Through July California sits at $13.48B through seven months, down 3% from that period in '25. July came in at approximately +3% year-over-year. That's the third positive month out of the last four after April's -13% drop. California is the largest surplus lines market in the country, and it has two main drivers in opposition currently: Rates are softening, which pulls premium down. But the admitted market keeps pushing more business into E&S, which pushes premium up. SLACAL's 2025 annual report called this a "permanent structural shift." The standard market's pullback is no longer limited to wildfire-prone rural areas. It's hitting urban and suburban markets too, and that flow is landing squarely in surplus lines. The -3% YTD number masks volatility underneath: January was -2%. February bounced to +2%. March fell -8%. April cratered at -13%. May recovered to +4%. June dropped -6%. July came back at +3%. Rate softening + admitted-market migration + monthly volatility = a market that's slightly smaller in total but structurally growing in the number of risks it covers. These swings are rate-driven. Renewal policies are being written at lower premiums than the prior year as brokers and carriers attempt to keep retention high. April's outsized decline was likely a price overcorrection from Q1 results by insurers and MGAs. Everyone writing in California is happy with three positive months in the first seven of the year given the macro trend on the admitted side. --- Texas: $11.7B Through July July premium was $1.9B, up 6% over July 2025. The state passed Florida for #2 in national premium volume at mid-year, and the gap widened to nearly $1B through July. We covered this in detail last week, including their new submission system. Liability lines continue hardening + rising submission flow = growth while property-heavy states decelerate. --- Florida: $10.7B Year-to-Date Florida's Tableau dashboard shows $10.7B year-to-date. The H1 story is premium at 6% below the first half of 2025. In a state that grew at 18% annually over the past five years, that's the deceleration we expected all over this year. Florida is near 60% property-related business when you combine commercial property, homeowners, builders risk, and others. So Florida feels property softness more than other states because of this. Transactions are still up 14%, so it's a pricing issue, not demand. 57% property composition + national property rate softness + high transaction volume = declining premium on steady or growing policy counts. FSLSO cut its service fee in half on July 1, from 0.06% to 0.03% of gross premium. On a $10M placement, that's $3k less in filing costs. Florida's average policy size of $8,000 is the lowest of the Big 4 and reflects the high-volume driving the book. --- New York: $6.3B Through July New York hit $6.3B through July, up from $5.3B through June. That's a $1 billion July, 18% above their monthly average. It puts New York on pace for roughly $10.8B for the full year. Modest growth over 2025's $10.5B, consistent with the 5% H1 growth rate. New York's book is liability-dominant. In a state with large, complex risks, a handful of major programs renewing in July could concentrate premium into one month. Liability-dominant mix + large complex placements + mid-year renewal cycle = a billion-dollar July. New York's average surplus lines policy is $19,282. Compared to the biggest three: - Florida: $8,000 - Texas: $12,177 - California: $13,343 - New York: $19,282 That compositional difference is why New York posts consistent growth without the monthly volatility you see in property-heavy states. Liability lines are still firming nationally, and New York's book is concentrated in exactly those lines. --- What Should You Do About It Property Wholesalers' revenue is tied to rates that are falling 14% nationally. Florida for example: premium down 6%, transactions up 14%. The policies are still flowing, but each one is worth less than it was last year. If your book is 70% property and you're not building liability capabilities, you're making a bet on the property cycle bottoms out soon. Carrier capacity decisions. Match your capacity to the composition and hold rate now. Casualty carriers: New York and Texas are where lines are growing. New York is excess and construction. Texas is a bit broader (GL, commercial auto, excess). What to Watch in August California's had three positive months in the last four. We're going to see continued E&S migration, so the results will depend on the type of risks that get bound. If Texas filing counts stay elevated and average premium per filing stays down, the API channel is a permanent structural feature of Texas data. Premium remains the metric to watch. August should show us what the continued trend of this major transaction change will be. Florida property transactions. The composition says Florida is the most exposed state in the Big 4 to the current property cycle. New York's coverage breakdown. Will the billion-dollar months continue, or was the huge month a result of the yearly renewal trend on large programs? --- This is the first monthly Big 4 roundup from Surplus Lines Reporting. Every month, we run the four states that publish monthly data through the same framework: what moved, why the composition explains it, and what to do about it. Subscribe at surpluslinesreporting.org for updates when new data publishes. *Data sourced from SLACAL, SLTX, FSLSO, and ELANY. Full state-level detail at surpluslinesreporting.org.* — Nourse Fox, 8.17.26