August Big 4 Round-Up

September 16, 2026 · August 2026 Big 4 Update Through August the four states that publish monthly have written $48B. The market is still expanding. Growth continues slowing. Last month we listed four things to watch: let's see how they turned out. California: $15.9B through August $15.9B YTD, down about 1% against the same stretch in 2025 ($16.01B). August corrected the whole year: $2.50B, +19% versus August 2025. That is by far the strongest period of the year after the first seven months between −13% and +4%. The two drivers are unchanged: Rates are softening, and the admitted market is still pushing risk into E&S. Average policy size is $11,716, down -19% from $14,508 a year ago. More policies at smaller premiums 1.4 million transactions YTD. We said last month the August result would depend on what got bound, and we got more flow. Texas: $13.3B through August $13.3B YTD, +6.4% versus the first eight months of 2025. Still tracking the ~$20B full-year number we used in July. The gap over Florida is now about $1.2B. This month confirmed the filings story started in July. The API pathway on SMART is the data reporting platform now. SLTX processed 320,522 items in August after 305,074 in July — and after 132k–156k in April–June. August premium was $1.7B, down from July’s $1.9B. Average premium per filing fell again, from roughly $6,100 to about $5,200. Commercial property is the largest coverage and has not rolled over the way Florida’s has. Liability drives the growth. Excess/umbrella, premises GL, and commercial auto kept adding through August. We said premium was the metric and August would show whether the transaction change stuck. Florida: $12.2B H1 was -6% below the first half of 2025. Price seems to be the driver, as transactions are not slowing. Commercial property alone is 36% ($4.33B); the broader property complex is still near 60%. Average policy size remains the lowest of the Big 4. Property-heavy mix + national price softness + healthy transaction counts = lower premium on steady or rising policy count. This is the state we said was most exposed to the current property cycle. New York: $7.4B through August $7.4B YTD. July was $1.0B. August was another ~$1.1B. Two large months in a row for the state. Full-year run rate is now in the $11B neighborhood against 2025’s $10.5B but still slower than last year’s 14.5%. Primary GL is 30% of the state. Real estate and construction are 47% of the buy-side. Average policy is $18,305, still well above the other three. Liability mix + large placements + a mid-year calendar that did not stop in July = two billion-dollar months. Last month’s question was whether July was the annual large programmatic renewals, and it proved to be more than that! What to do Property wholesalers are watching a falling rate with Florida as exhibit A. Capacity: Casualty in New York and Texas. - New York is excess and construction. - Texas is more complex — property base + GL, commercial auto, and some excess. - California seems to be shifting the entirety of their insurance market share from admitted over to E&S. It's hard to identify a real variable mover in a vertical when the month is so big on an already volatile year (reminder: August’s +19%), especially with price declining. What to watch in September Can California's E&S market continue absorbing this much flow? Texas: can premium start to pace back up with transactions? Florida: expecting softness to continue, and a hard month would be breaking the cycle. New York: can GL drive a 3rd billion-dollar month? Subscribe at surpluslinesreporting.org. Data: SLACAL, SLTX, FSLSO, ELANY. — Nourse Fox, 9.16.26